Download the EnerOutlook 2050 presentation to have an overview of the main outcomes of our central scenario EnerBlue in various world regions.
The presentation includes details on the underlying assumptions of this scenario, along with insightful graphs and learnings on the future of energy systems through 2050.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States is expected to become a net importer of petroleum (i.e. crude oil, refined oil products, and other liquids) on an annual basis in both 2021 and 2022 because of declines in domestic crude oil production and corresponding increases in crude oil imports. In 2020, the US crude oil output decreased by 0.9 mb/d (-8%) to 11.3 mb/d because of well curtailment and a reduced drilling activity due to low crude oil prices.
The Indonesian state-owned oil company Pertamina, which imported 78.7 mbl of crude oil in 2020, plans to import 118.4 mbl in 2021 (+50%). Gasoline imports by Pertamina are expected to reach 113 mbl in 2021 (+14%).
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the share of renewables in the US electricity generation mix will double from 21% in 2020 to 42% in 2050, with wind and solar accounting for most of that growth. Nuclear and coal-fired generation should decrease and the natural gas-fired generation share remains relatively constant. By 2030, renewables should collectively surpass natural gas to be the predominant source of power generation in the United States. Solar power generation - including solar PV and thermal technologies - should become the largest source of renewable power generation after the production tax credit (PTC) for wind phases out at the end of 2024, surpassing wind by 2040.
According to the Ministry of Energy of Chile, 94 power projects with a combined capacity of 6,016 MW are expected to be connected to the National Electric System in 2021, for a total investment of over US$10,450m. More than 80% of the new capacity will be renewable: half of the new capacity will come from solar PV projects (3,092 MW), followed by wind projects (1,813 MW). The 531 MW Alto Maipo hydropower project, including the 267 MW Las Lajas power plant and the 264 MW Alfalfal II power plant, should also be commissioned in 2021. A 166 MW hybrid project using biomass and wind should start up in October 2021 (MAPA project by Arauco Cellulose).
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