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China plans to reduce the share of coal below 56% of primary energy consumption in 2021, according to the National Energy Administration (NEA), from 56.8% in 2020. In addition, the country intends to raise the share of electricity in final energy consumption from 27% in 2020 to 28% in 2021, with 11% of this electricity consumption from wind and solar generation. Renewable power capacity should reach 1,100 GW in 2021. China also expects to produce 196 Mt of crude oil and 203 bcm of natural gas in 2021.
China’s natural gas demand should increase by 8.6% in 2021 to 354 bcm in 2021, according to China National Petroleum Company’s Economics and Technology Research Institute. Gas imports are forecast to increase by 12.5% to 159 bcm in 2021, including 104 bcm of LNG and 55 bcm of piped gas.
China is expected to add 295 kb/d (14.7 Mt/year) of refining capacity in 2021. The country’s net crude oil imports should grow by 3.4% in 2021 to 559 Mt, or 11.2 mb/d. Gasoline demand should increase by 0.8% in 2021 and aviation fuel use by 13%. However, diesel demand is expected to decline by 0.8%. In addition, fuel exports should increase by almost a third to 54.7 Mt in 2021.
The Russian government has lowered its forecast for oil production from 560 Mt to 517 Mt (-8% on previous forecast) in 2021 and to 548 Mt in 2022 (-2%); forecasts for 2023 and 2024 have not changed. In addition, the country should produce 391 Mt of coal in 2021 (-14% compared to a previous forecast), 390 Mt in 2022 and 2023 (-16% and -18%, respectively, on previous forecasts), and 420 Mt in 2024 (-14%). Where gas production is concerned, Russia is now expected to produce 698 bcm of gas in 2021 (-6.9%), 743 bcm in 2022 (-2%), 773 bcm in 2023 and 795 bcm in 2024 (unchanged); LNG production is still expected to average 30.1 Mt in 2021.
According to the Polish gas transmission system operator Gaz-System, Poland’s gas demand is forecast to increase by 60% over the next 10-13 years, from nearly 21 bcm in 2019 to over 30 bcm. The country will use gas as a transition fuel before switching to nuclear and renewables. In 2040, gas should account for 30% of Poland’s power mix, followed by wind (30%), nuclear (16%) and solar (5%).
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