Download the EnerOutlook 2019 presentation to have an overview of the main outcomes of our central scenario EnerBlue in various world regions.
The presentation includes details on the underlying assumptions of this scenario, along with insightful graphs and learnings on the future of energy systems through 2040.
According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), crude oil production in Canada is expected to increase by 1.27%/year until 2035. Production should increase by around 3%/year until 2021 before slowing down to +1%/year through 2035. The growth will come from Western Canada (+1.4%/year), whereas production should decline by 0.1%/year in eastern Canada. Oil sands, which account for 2/3 of the current production, will remain the primary driver for growth, despite a continuous decline in investments, due to regulatory and policy challenges: investments in oil sands is expected to decline for the fifth year in a row in 2019, from C$34bn (US$25bn) in 2014 to around C$12bn (US$9bn) in 2019. However, oil sands production is expected to surge by 46% by 2035. In the short term, oil sands production growth should average 4%/year over the 2019-2021 period.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global gas demand should continue to increase over the next five years, spurred by a dynamic demand in Asia and by the steady development of the international gas trade. Gas consumption would then rise by 10% between 2018 and 2024 (around +1.6%/year).
Nigeria's national oil and gas company Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) expects domestic gas demand in Nigeria to increase five-fold (+393%) within the next eight years. This surge in gas demand would mainly come from the power sector (additional demand of 5.7 bcf/d, i.e. nearly +59 bcm/year). Domestic supply should also increase, thanks to the "Seven Critical Gas Development Projects" (7CGDP), which would produce an additional 3.5 bcf/d (36 bcm/year) of gas in 2021. Gas supply will also be improved with the completion of the ELPS II (Escravos Lagos Pipeline System) looping and with the OB3 (Obiafu/Obrikom/Oben) project.
According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), renewables are the cheapest energy sources for new power generation in most parts of the world. The cost of electricity generated from bioenergy, hydropower, geothermal, onshore and offshore wind power was estimated to be within the range of fossil-fuel-fired power generation costs over the 2010-2018 period. The global-weighted average cost of solar PV has also been competing with fossil power generation since 2014.
EnerFuture provides energy projections up to 2040. Our service offers clear insight into the future of energy demand, prices and GHG emissions.
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