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The presentation includes details on the underlying assumptions of this scenario, along with insightful graphs and learnings on the future of energy systems through 2050.
In 2020, China intends to raise its crude oil production by 1% and its gas production by 4.3%. It will focus on four key hydrocarbon production areas to reach this target, namely the Bohai Bay in northern China (offshore production), the Sichuan province, the Erdos Basin and the Xinjiang region (western China). China also aims to promote new energies, including renewables, fuel ethanol and coal-to-liquids (CTL) to replace conventional hydrocarbons, according to the National Energy Administration. In addition, the country plans to have 900 GW of installed non-fossil fuel power generation capacity in 2020 and to limit the share of coal in its primary energy mix to 57.5%.
According to the Danish Energy Agency (DEA), without new measures, Denmark will fall short of meeting its Climate Act target to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 70% by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, reducing emissions by only 44% by 2030. In December 2019, the Danish parliament adopted a new Climate Act with a legally binding objective to reduce GHG emissions by 70% by 2030 (compared to the 1990 level). Consequently, Denmark will have to cut GHG emissions by an additional 26 points, or 20 MtCO2eq, by 2030.
According to the Indonesian government, the country is expected to produce 550 Mt of coal (down from 582 Mt in 2019), while exports should reach 435 Mt, which is 40 Mt higher than the previous target of 395 Mt but will remain lower than 2019 exports (459 Mt). As domestic coal demand is forecasted to fall from 133 Mt in 2019 to 100 Mt in 2020, Indonesia intends to increase its coal exports to Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
According to the Indonesian government, Indonesia’s oil product demand is expected to rise by 3.2%/year to 1.47 mb/d by 2026 (+12%). Meanwhile, the country’s refined product output should rise by around 70%, to reach 1.5 mb/d by 2026. Thus, Indonesia would be self-sufficient for oil products as of 2026, instead of its 2023 target.
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