EnerOutlook 2050

EnerOutlook is a free online interactive data software, allowing to browse data through intuitive maps and graphs, for a visual analysis of the expected long-term trends in the energy industry.
These can be viewed globally and by world region. The interface provides robust forecasts on energy supply and demand as well as information on fossil fuel prices, renewable energies and CO2 emissions.

The energy scenarios presented in the following pages are the results of Enerdata annual update of its forecasting exercise named EnerFuture. The scenario design and outputs do not consider the latest events related to the global Covid-19 sanitary crisis and its consequences on the economy. An analysis of these impacts and of potential economic recovery plans will be at our agenda in the coming months.

This application is an excerpt of the complete EnerFuture global forecast service based on the POLES model.

Access to projections:
  • On total primary and final consumption, with details for electricity and natural gas;
  • On CO2 emissions;
  • On energy and climate indicators;
  • Covering the whole world with 7 regional groupings;
  • With a new tab for snapshots on specific countries;
  • Including data for the period 2015-2050.

Free data export in *.xls files for advanced analysis.

EnerOutlook 2050 Presentation


Download the EnerOutlook 2050 presentation to have an overview of the main outcomes of our central scenario EnerBlue in various world regions.
The presentation includes details on the underlying assumptions of this scenario, along with insightful graphs and learnings on the future of energy systems through 2050.

Download the publication


Coal should account for 56% of China’s energy demand in 2021

China plans to reduce the share of coal below 56% of primary energy consumption in 2021, according to the National Energy Administration (NEA), from 56.8% in 2020. In addition, the country intends to raise the share of electricity in final energy consumption from 27% in 2020 to 28% in 2021, with 11% of this electricity consumption from wind and solar generation. Renewable power capacity should reach 1,100 GW in 2021. China also expects to produce 196 Mt of crude oil and 203 bcm of natural gas in 2021.


China’s gas consumption expected to increase by 8.6% in 2021

China’s natural gas demand should increase by 8.6% in 2021 to 354 bcm in 2021, according to China National Petroleum Company’s Economics and Technology Research Institute. Gas imports are forecast to increase by 12.5% to 159 bcm in 2021, including 104 bcm of LNG and 55 bcm of piped gas.

China is expected to add 295 kb/d (14.7 Mt/year) of refining capacity in 2021. The country’s net crude oil imports should grow by 3.4% in 2021 to 559 Mt, or 11.2 mb/d. Gasoline demand should increase by 0.8% in 2021 and aviation fuel use by 13%. However, diesel demand is expected to decline by 0.8%. In addition, fuel exports should increase by almost a third to 54.7 Mt in 2021.


Russia lowers its energy production forecasts for 2021-2022

The Russian government has lowered its forecast for oil production from 560 Mt to 517 Mt (-8% on previous forecast) in 2021 and to 548 Mt in 2022 (-2%); forecasts for 2023 and 2024 have not changed. In addition, the country should produce 391 Mt of coal in 2021 (-14% compared to a previous forecast), 390 Mt in 2022 and 2023 (-16% and -18%, respectively, on previous forecasts), and 420 Mt in 2024 (-14%). Where gas production is concerned, Russia is now expected to produce 698 bcm of gas in 2021 (-6.9%), 743 bcm in 2022 (-2%), 773 bcm in 2023 and 795 bcm in 2024 (unchanged); LNG production is still expected to average 30.1 Mt in 2021.


Poland’s gas demand should increase by 60% over the next decade

According to the Polish gas transmission system operator Gaz-System, Poland’s gas demand is forecast to increase by 60% over the next 10-13 years, from nearly 21 bcm in 2019 to over 30 bcm. The country will use gas as a transition fuel before switching to nuclear and renewables. In 2040, gas should account for 30% of Poland’s power mix, followed by wind (30%), nuclear (16%) and solar (5%).

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