Download the EnerOutlook 2050 presentation to have an overview of the main outcomes of our central scenario EnerBlue in various world regions.
The presentation includes details on the underlying assumptions of this scenario, along with insightful graphs and learnings on the future of energy systems through 2050.
Western Australia’s first Whole of System Plan, which provides a 20-year outlook on the future of the South West Interconnected System (SWIS), foresees that 520 MW to 890 MW of the state's coal-fired power capacity may face economic closure by 2025. The government plans to shut down the two units of the Muja C coal-fired power plant, which totals 392 MW, in 2022 and 2024. In addition, the 340 MW Collie power plant, which started operating in 1999, could be decommissioned. Western Australia forecasts that renewable generation will triple by 2040, with a strong uptake in wind power, and a potential gas-fired power plant if electricity demand rises significantly. Under all four modelling scenarios, over 80% of generation capacity is renewable by 2040.
Gazprom anticipates a nearly 15% decline in its gas sales to Europe from 199 bcm in 2019 to 170 bcm in 2020. In addition, the company’s average gas price in Europe is expected to reach US$130/1,000 cm in 2020.
According to the National Steering Committee for Electricity Development of Vietnam, electricity demand in Vietnam is expected to increase by 7.5 to 8%/year until 2030. The Power Planning VIII report estimates that electricity demand could reach 526 TWh by 2030, requiring an installed capacity of 131 GW by this date, i.e. an additional 75,100 MW of new capacity on top of the existing capacity (55,900 MW). Adding an average 7,500 MW each year would require US$7bn to US$8bn of investment each year.
According to the Chinese National Energy Administration (NEA), China’s natural gas consumption could increase by 4.2% in 2020 to 320 bcm. This would be its slowest pace in five years, after an 19% growth in 2018 and an 8.6% growth in 2019, since the coronavirus pandemic severely affected economic activity and energy demand. Consumption from city gas sector supported gas demand (+10% in the first half of 2020 compared with the same period of 2019) and industrial consumption is recovering after price cuts. China’s gas production is expected to rise by 9% to 189 bcm, while gas imports should reach 140 bcm (+12%), including 50 bcm from pipeline gas and 90 bcm from LNG shipments.
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