Brazil: Key Forecasts

The French energy regulator, Commission de Régulation de l’Energie (CRE), has calculated the complete production cost of France’s existing nuclear fleet, taking into account several cost components, over the period 2026-2040. The full cost of existing nuclear power calculated by the CRE amounts to respectively €60.7/MWh over the period 2026-2030, €59.1/MWh over 2031-2035, and €57.3/MWh over 2036-2040 (in 2022 euros).

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that North America’s LNG export capacity will expand from 11.4 bcf/d (118 bcm/year) in 2023 to 24.3 bcf/d (251 bcm/year) in 2027, as Mexico and Canada commission their first LNG export terminals and the United States adds to its existing LNG capacity. By the end of 2027, the EIA estimates that LNG export capacity will grow by 1.1 bcf/d (11.4 bcm/year) in Mexico, 2.1 bcf/d (21.7 bcm/year) in Canada, and 9.7 bcf/d (100.3 bcm/year) in the United States, from a total of 10 new projects across the three countries.

Germany’s Working Group on Energy Balances (AG EnergieBilanzen, AGEB) expects energy consumption in Germany to fall to a record low in 2023. The group forecasts a decline of consumption of around 8% in 2023. The forecast also indicates that consumption would be almost 28% below Germany’s consumption peak in 1990. This would reduce Germany's energy-related CO₂ emissions by nearly 11%.

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has cut its price forecast for its natural gas and oil exports outside the ex-Soviet Union countries from 2024 to 2026. Russia’s gas exports to countries outside the ex-Soviet Union are now forecasted at US$434.6/1,000m3 in 2023, at US$321.7/1,000m3 in 2024 (-21% compared to previous forecast), US$308.3/1,000m3 in 2025 (-17%) and US$296/1,000m3 in 2026 (-13%).