Brazil: Key Forecasts

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US LNG exports rose by 9% in 2022, driven by a strong LNG demand in Europe (in a context of lower Russian gas pipeline exports), high international gas prices and increased US liquefaction capacity. Europe became the largest destination for US LNG exports in 2022, accounting for 64% of total US LNG exports, with four countries accounting for a combined 74% of these exports to Europe, namely France, the United Kingdom, Spain and the Netherlands. US LNG exports to Asia fell by 46%, due to a 78% fall in exports to China (overall, China cut its LNG imports by nearly 20% in 2022). US LNG exports to Latin America also fell by 62%, with a 77% decrease in Brazil, where a higher hydropower availability reduced gas demand for power generation. US LNG exports to Kuwait - the only country in the Middle East that imported US LNG - doubled but remained marginal.

Global renewable generation capacity grew by 295 GW in 2022 (i.e., over 80% of the new power capacities installed in 2022), according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity increased by 191 GW in 2022, accounting for 65% of renewable installations, followed by wind (+75 GW, 25% of total installations), hydropower (+21 GW), bioenergy (+7.6 GW) and off-grid electricity (+1.2 GW).

US petroleum product exports rose by 7% in 2022 to 5.97 mb/d, driven by an increase of 18% (193,000 b/d) in distillate fuel oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The United States and the European Union imposed sanctions on Russia's petroleum industry in response to the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, leading to higher prices and crack spreads for petroleum products. In addition, the high volume of US petroleum product exports in 2022 also reflected longer-term growth trends: US exports of total petroleum products more than doubled to 5.97 million b/d in 2022 from 2.31 million b/d in 2010. US distillate fuel oil exports in 2022 averaged 1.26 mb/d, below pre-pandemic volumes, while motor gasoline exports exceeded 2019 volumes.

Snam, the Italian gas transmission system operator, has released its 2022 results, posting a net profit of €671m (-55% compared to 2021). Gas demand in Italy declined by 10% in 2022 to 68.7 bcm, driven down by a lower consumption in all sectors. Gas consumption contracted in the residential and tertiary sector (-16%), because of warmer weather than in 2021, and energy conservation efforts. It also decreased in the industrial sector (-14%) due to the effect of the increase in commodity prices and the unstable macroeconomic situation that led to a drop in industrial production in some energy-intensive sectors. Gas consumption was cut in the power generation sector (-3%) as a result of higher gas prices, despite the drop in hydro production caused by extreme drought. At constant climate, Italian gas demand decreased only by 8%.