Introduction

In the EnerBlue scenario, no fundamental and abrupt oil price increase above US$80/b is foreseen anytime soon. We rather observe a persistent global oversupply, with limited geopolitical risks in a context of global cooperation towards NDC targets.
In addition to international fossil fuel prices, further energy prices, including end-user prices by energy and by sector, are available in the complete EnerFuture global forecast service based on the POLES model.

Trend over 2000-2040 – EnerBlue scenario

The oil price is expected to push above US$60 per barrel due to both (geo)political reasons (in particular tensions in e.g. Venezuela and Libya, along with US sanctions in other countries like Iran), as well as to a convergence of interests between OPEC and Russia, both of which have declared their intention to limit production levels. However, with a rising US production this is not necessarily sustainable on the long run. Saudi Arabia has indeed a short-term interest to push up the oil price in order to better valorize Saudi Aramco’s possible partial privatization.

In the long run however, the Kingdom, with the world largest low-cost oil reserves and aware of the importance of energy transition worldwide and the risk of sitting on stranded reserves, will have a clear interest to fight for market shares and not for price. Oil prices are hence expected to remain between US$50 and US$80 per barrel until 2040. For short periods of time, the price may spike in any direction, responding to short term economic, financial and/or political events, rather than fundamental long-term market realities. The current oil price of US$60-70/b already incorporates in our opinion a geopolitical risk premium of some US$10-20/b.

EnerOutlook Presentation

EnerOutlook

Download the EnerOutlook 2019 presentation to have an overview of the main outcomes of our central scenario EnerBlue in various world regions.
The presentation includes details on the underlying assumptions of this scenario, along with insightful graphs and learnings on the future of energy systems through 2040.

Download the publication

08
Nov

Gujarat (India) sets 30 GW renewable capacity target by 2022

The State of Gujarat (Western India) aims at increasing its renewable power capacity from the current 9.7 GW to 30 GW by 2022. The existing renewable power capacity of Gujarat is divided between wind (6.9 GW) and solar (2.6 GW). In September 2019, the State Government of Gujarat decided to no longer give clearance to new thermal projects. Gujarat's thermal installed capacity reached 22.3 GW in July 2019 with coal-fired capacity representing 14.2 GW.

07
Nov

OPEC unveils forecast for oil demand growth

OPEC has released its World Oil Outlook 2019, including long-term projections and assessment for the global oil and energy industry. According to the OPEC, total primary energy demand would increase by 25% between 2018 and 2040. Even if gas should post the largest demand growth through 2040 in absolute terms (renewable energies should have the highest growth in percentage terms), oil would remain the most consumed fuel in the global energy mix, with oil demand reaching 110.6 mb/d by 2040.

06
Nov

Coal India advances 1 Gt/year coal production target from 2026 to 2024

Indian state-owned coal producing giant Coal India has decided to advance its coal production target of 1 Gt/year by two years, from 2026 to 2024. The group had initially set this target for 2020 but had to postpone it to 2026 in September 2018, citing changes in India's carbon emission targets, slow industrial growth, changing energy mix, environmental difficulties and land acquisition challenges. This higher coal output is aimed at meeting rising power demand. The Ministry of Coal and Mines now expects Coal India's production to reach 750 Mt in the next fiscal year (2020-2021), from 607 Mt in 2018-2019 and a target of 660 Mt in 2019-2020.

06
Nov

South Korea will close 2.6 GW of old coal-fired power capacity by 2021

As part of its efforts to reduce air pollution, South Korea will decommission six older coal-fired power units with a total capacity of 2.6 GW by 2021, a year before than previously planned. Coal-fired plants to be stopped are Samcheonpo units 1&2 (2x560 MW, operated by KOSEP), Boryeong units 1&2 (2x500 MW, operated by Komipo) as well as Honam units 1&2 (2x250 MW, operated by EWP).


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