In the Ener-Blue scenario, no fundamental and abrupt oil price increase above US$100/b is foreseen anytime soon. We rather observe a persistent global oversupply, while the ability of US tight oil producers to cut their break-even prices may continue to surprise observers.
In addition to international fossil fuel prices, further energy prices, including end-user prices by energy and by sector, are available in the complete EnerFuture global forecast service based on the POLES model.

Trend over 2000-2040 – Ener-Blue scenario

The oil price is expected to push above US$60 per barrel also due to a convergence of interests between OPEC and Russia, both of which have declared their intention to limit production levels. However, with a rising US production this is not necessarily sustainable on the long run. Saudi Arabia has indeed a short-term interest to push up the oil price in order to better valorize Saudi Aramco’s partial privatization.

In the long-run however, the Kingdom, with the world largest low-cost oil reserves and aware of the importance of energy transition worldwide and the risk of sitting on stranded reserves, will have a clear interest to fight for market shares and not for price. Oil prices are hence expected to remain between US$50 and US$80 per barrel until around 2030. For short periods of time, the price may spike in any direction, responding to short term economic, financial and/or political events, rather than fundamental long-term market realities. The current oil price of US$60-70/b already incorporates in our opinion a geopolitical risk premium of some US$10-20/b.

EnerFuture: Global Energy Forecasts

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MACC : Marginal Abatement Cost Curves

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