In the EnerBlue scenario, no fundamental and abrupt oil price increase above US$80/b is foreseen anytime soon. We rather observe a persistent global oversupply, with limited geopolitical risks in a context of global cooperation towards NDC targets.
In addition to international fossil fuel prices, further energy prices, including end-user prices by energy and by sector, are available in the complete EnerFuture global forecast service based on the POLES model.

Trend over 2000-2040 – EnerBlue scenario

The oil price is expected to push above US$60 per barrel due to both (geo)political reasons (in particular tensions in e.g. Venezuela and Libya, along with US sanctions in other countries like Iran), as well as to a convergence of interests between OPEC and Russia, both of which have declared their intention to limit production levels. However, with a rising US production this is not necessarily sustainable on the long run. Saudi Arabia has indeed a short-term interest to push up the oil price in order to better valorize Saudi Aramco’s possible partial privatization.

In the long run however, the Kingdom, with the world largest low-cost oil reserves and aware of the importance of energy transition worldwide and the risk of sitting on stranded reserves, will have a clear interest to fight for market shares and not for price. Oil prices are hence expected to remain between US$50 and US$80 per barrel until 2040. For short periods of time, the price may spike in any direction, responding to short term economic, financial and/or political events, rather than fundamental long-term market realities. The current oil price of US$60-70/b already incorporates in our opinion a geopolitical risk premium of some US$10-20/b.

EnerOutlook Presentation


Download the EnerOutlook 2019 presentation to have an overview of the main outcomes of our central scenario EnerBlue in various world regions.
The presentation includes details on the underlying assumptions of this scenario, along with insightful graphs and learnings on the future of energy systems through 2040.

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US EIA expects US energy-related CO2 emissions to dip by 2.2% in 2019

According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released by the US  Energy Information Administration (EIA), energy-related CO2 emissions in the United States are expected to reverse their 2018 trend (+3%) and to decline by 2.2% in 2019. Energy-related CO2 emissions would decrease by 114 Mt in 2019 and most of the drop would come from coal-related emissions (-13%, i.e. -168 Mt); this would be the largest decline in CO2 emissions from coal since 2015. Coal-related CO2 emissions are expected to decline by a further 3.6% in 2020.


US utility-scale energy storage capacity will reach 2.5 GW by 2023

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the installed capacity of utility-scale (above 1 MW) battery energy storage systems (BESS) in the United States could reach 2.5 GW by 2023.


India estimates renewable energy investments at US$330bn through 2030

The Indian government has presented its Economic Survey 2018-19 to the Parliament, which estimates that US$330bn will be invested in renewable energies through 2030: investments in renewable power plants - not including power transmission projects - until 2022 could reach US$80bn (at today's prices) and an additional US$250m would be required over the 2023-2030 period, corresponding to an average US$30bn/year investment level.


Coal expected to cover half of the Indian power mix by 2030

According to the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) of India, the share of coal in the Indian power mix should remain dominant until 2030, despite a planned decline from around 73% in 2018 to around 50% in 2030. This erosion is related to the current boom in solar and wind projects. Non-fossil fuel sources are expected to reach 65% of the installed capacity and 48% of total power generation by 2030 (including 23% from solar, 12% from wind, 8% from hydro and 4% from nuclear). However, a large portion of India's existing fleet of coal-fired power plants will remain operational through 2030 bringing coal to account for 1/3 of the power capacity and 50% of the power generation and will contribute to rising CO2 emissions.

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