The oil price is expected to push above US$60 per barrel also due to a convergence of interests between OPEC and Russia, both of which have declared their intention to limit production levels. However, with a rising US production this is not necessarily sustainable on the long run. Saudi Arabia has indeed a short-term interest to push up the oil price in order to better valorize Saudi Aramco’s partial privatization.
In the long-run however, the Kingdom, with the world largest low-cost oil reserves and aware of the importance of energy transition worldwide and the risk of sitting on stranded reserves, will have a clear interest to fight for market shares and not for price. Oil prices are hence expected to remain between US$50 and US$80 per barrel until around 2030. For short periods of time, the price may spike in any direction, responding to short term economic, financial and/or political events, rather than fundamental long-term market realities. The current oil price of US$60-70/b already incorporates in our opinion a geopolitical risk premium of some US$10-20/b.
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The Ministry of Mines and Energy of Brazil estimates that almost BRL2,000bn (US$506bn) will be invested in the Brazilian energy sector by 2027, including BRL1,500bn (US$379m) in oil, gas and biofuels, BRL400bn (US$101bn) in the power sector and BRL80bn (US$20bn) in the mining sector (by 2022). In the power sector, 5,900 km of new lines will be built between 2019 and 2027. The Ministry of Mines and Energy has just approved the construction of 55 new transmission lines, that will spread over 7,152 km.
According to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), Australia should face a gas shortage as of 2024, as gas production from the ageing Gippsland Basin fields off Victoria, which have long been the main gas supply source for the states of New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmanian, is expected to decline. Gas supply to those states could then fall from the current 150 PJ (3.6 Mtoe) to 23 PJ (550 ktoe) in 2023.
According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), CO2 emissions from the domestic energy consumption are predicted to remain near current levels through 2050 and reach a total of 5,019 Mt by then, i.e. only 4% below their 2018 value. Emissions related to coal and oil consumption are forecast to decrease but will be offset by rising emissions from gas consumption.
According to the British industry body Oil and Gas UK (OGUK), exploration and production companies will have to invest a total £200bn (approximately €230m) to fully exploit the domestic oil and gas sector, to realise industry’s Vision 2035 and to add a generation of productive life to the basin. According to OGUK, production has increased by 20% over the past five years, following 14 years of decline.