Introduction

In the Ener-Blue scenario, no fundamental and abrupt oil price increase above US$100/b is foreseen anytime soon. We rather observe a persistent global oversupply, while the ability of US tight oil producers to cut their break-even prices may continue to surprise observers.
In addition to international fossil fuel prices, further energy prices, including end-user prices by energy and by sector, are available in the complete EnerFuture global forecast service based on the POLES model.

Trend over 2000-2040 – Ener-Blue scenario

The oil price is expected to push above US$60 per barrel also due to a convergence of interests between OPEC and Russia, both of which have declared their intention to limit production levels. However, with a rising US production this is not necessarily sustainable on the long run. Saudi Arabia has indeed a short-term interest to push up the oil price in order to better valorize Saudi Aramco’s partial privatization.

In the long-run however, the Kingdom, with the world largest low-cost oil reserves and aware of the importance of energy transition worldwide and the risk of sitting on stranded reserves, will have a clear interest to fight for market shares and not for price. Oil prices are hence expected to remain between US$50 and US$80 per barrel until around 2030. For short periods of time, the price may spike in any direction, responding to short term economic, financial and/or political events, rather than fundamental long-term market realities. The current oil price of US$60-70/b already incorporates in our opinion a geopolitical risk premium of some US$10-20/b.

EnerFuture: Global Energy Forecasts

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EnerFuture provides energy projections up to 2040. Our service offers clear insight into the future of energy demand, prices and GHG emissions.

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MACC: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves

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Enerdata's long-term MACC allow you to gain unique insight and comprehensive data from the globally recognised POLES model.

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28
Mar

Eastern Australia may face gas shortage as of 2024

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22
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US energy-related CO2 emissions should remain stable through 2050

According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), CO2 emissions from the domestic energy consumption are predicted to remain near current levels through 2050 and reach a total of 5,019 Mt by then, i.e. only 4% below their 2018 value. Emissions related to coal and oil consumption are forecast to decrease but will be offset by rising emissions from gas consumption.

21
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UK oil and gas industry needs to invest £200bn for future development

According to the British industry body Oil and Gas UK (OGUK), exploration and production companies will have to invest a total £200bn (approximately €230m) to fully exploit the domestic oil and gas sector, to realise industry’s Vision 2035 and to add a generation of productive life to the basin. According to OGUK, production has increased by 20% over the past five years, following 14 years of decline.


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