In the Ener-Blue scenario, no fundamental and abrupt oil price increase above US$100/b is foreseen anytime soon. We rather observe a persistent global oversupply, while the ability of US tight oil producers to cut their break-even prices may continue to surprise observers.
In addition to international fossil fuel prices, further energy prices, including end-user prices by energy and by sector, are available in the complete EnerFuture global forecast service based on the POLES model.

Trend over 2000-2040 – Ener-Blue scenario

The oil price is expected to push above US$60 per barrel also due to a convergence of interests between OPEC and Russia, both of which have declared their intention to limit production levels. However, with a rising US production this is not necessarily sustainable on the long run. Saudi Arabia has indeed a short-term interest to push up the oil price in order to better valorize Saudi Aramco’s partial privatization.

In the long-run however, the Kingdom, with the world largest low-cost oil reserves and aware of the importance of energy transition worldwide and the risk of sitting on stranded reserves, will have a clear interest to fight for market shares and not for price. Oil prices are hence expected to remain between US$50 and US$80 per barrel until around 2030. For short periods of time, the price may spike in any direction, responding to short term economic, financial and/or political events, rather than fundamental long-term market realities. The current oil price of US$60-70/b already incorporates in our opinion a geopolitical risk premium of some US$10-20/b.

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Uganda's first oil production will be delayed by one year to 2022

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development of Uganda has delayed the startup of domestic oil production by one year until 2022. The country discovered its crude reserves more than 10 years ago but the production has been repeatedly delayed by disagreements with field operators over taxes and the development process. Besides, the lack of existing transportation pipelines and refining infrastructure also played a significant role in holding up the country's projects.


Saudi Arabia will cut crude oil output to 9.8 mb/d in March 2019

The Saudi Arabian government has outlined plans to reduce the domestic crude oil production to approximately 9.8 mb/d in March 2019, which is over 0.5 mb/d below its pledged production level of 10.3 mb/d agreed under the latest global supply cutting agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Besides, Saudi oil exports are slated to follow the same trend and will decrease to 6.9 mb/d.


US power sector CO2 emissions predicted to remain flat until 2050

According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), US power sector emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) are predicted to remain flat until 2050 assuming no legislation changes. The governmental body reports that emissions from the domestic power sector have declined over the past decades either directly or indirectly due to the phased implementation of several regulations passed under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990.


South Sudan expects to produce 350,000 bbl/d of crude oil by mid-2020

The South Sudanese government has outlined plans to return to producing more than 350,000 bbl/d of crude oil by the middle of 2020, up from the current level of 140,000 bbl/d. An intermediate objective has been set a 270,000 bbl/d for the end of 2019. More specifically, block 3 and 7 are expected to produce 180,000 bbl/d in 2019, while blocks 1, 2 and 4 will produce 70,000 bbl/d, and block 5A will produce 20,000 bbl/d

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