In the EnerBlue scenario, no fundamental and abrupt oil price increase above US$80/b is foreseen anytime soon. We rather observe a persistent global oversupply, with limited geopolitical risks in a context of global cooperation towards NDC targets.
In addition to international fossil fuel prices, further energy prices, including end-user prices by energy and by sector, are available in the complete EnerFuture global forecast service based on the POLES model.

Trend over 2000-2040 – EnerBlue scenario

The oil price is expected to push above US$60 per barrel due to both (geo)political reasons (in particular tensions in e.g. Venezuela and Libya, along with US sanctions in other countries like Iran), as well as to a convergence of interests between OPEC and Russia, both of which have declared their intention to limit production levels. However, with a rising US production this is not necessarily sustainable on the long run. Saudi Arabia has indeed a short-term interest to push up the oil price in order to better valorize Saudi Aramco’s possible partial privatization.

In the long run however, the Kingdom, with the world largest low-cost oil reserves and aware of the importance of energy transition worldwide and the risk of sitting on stranded reserves, will have a clear interest to fight for market shares and not for price. Oil prices are hence expected to remain between US$50 and US$80 per barrel until 2040. For short periods of time, the price may spike in any direction, responding to short term economic, financial and/or political events, rather than fundamental long-term market realities. The current oil price of US$60-70/b already incorporates in our opinion a geopolitical risk premium of some US$10-20/b.

EnerOutlook Presentation


Download the EnerOutlook 2019 presentation to have an overview of the main outcomes of our central scenario EnerBlue in various world regions.
The presentation includes details on the underlying assumptions of this scenario, along with insightful graphs and learnings on the future of energy systems through 2040.

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