Introduction

In the EnerBlue scenario, no fundamental and abrupt oil price increase above US$80/b is foreseen anytime soon. We rather observe a persistent global oversupply, with limited geopolitical risks in a context of global cooperation towards NDC targets.
In addition to international fossil fuel prices, further energy prices, including end-user prices by energy and by sector, are available in the complete EnerFuture global forecast service based on the POLES model.

Trend over 2000-2040 – EnerBlue scenario

The oil price is expected to push above US$60 per barrel due to both (geo)political reasons (in particular tensions in e.g. Venezuela and Libya, along with US sanctions in other countries like Iran), as well as to a convergence of interests between OPEC and Russia, both of which have declared their intention to limit production levels. However, with a rising US production this is not necessarily sustainable on the long run. Saudi Arabia has indeed a short-term interest to push up the oil price in order to better valorize Saudi Aramco’s possible partial privatization.

In the long run however, the Kingdom, with the world largest low-cost oil reserves and aware of the importance of energy transition worldwide and the risk of sitting on stranded reserves, will have a clear interest to fight for market shares and not for price. Oil prices are hence expected to remain between US$50 and US$80 per barrel until 2040. For short periods of time, the price may spike in any direction, responding to short term economic, financial and/or political events, rather than fundamental long-term market realities. The current oil price of US$60-70/b already incorporates in our opinion a geopolitical risk premium of some US$10-20/b.

EnerOutlook Presentation

EnerOutlook

Download the EnerOutlook 2019 presentation to have an overview of the main outcomes of our central scenario EnerBlue in various world regions.
The presentation includes details on the underlying assumptions of this scenario, along with insightful graphs and learnings on the future of energy systems through 2040.

Download the publication

09
Sep

US$50bn in investment non-consistent with Paris agreement since 2018

According to the Carbon Tracker Initiative (UK), since 2018, major oil & gas companies have approved around US$50bn of new investments that will not be able to thrive if countries comply with the Paris Agreement's goal to keep global temperature rise below 1.5-2˚C. A further US$21bn non-Paris-aligned project pipeline is set to be approved by end-2019.

09
Sep

Uranium production will need to double by 2040 to supply reactors

According to a recent report, the World Nuclear Association foresees that the world's uranium resources are enough to respond to the nuclear reactor's demand beyond 2040. The current level of uranium production, which fell 14% between 2016 and 2018 (to 53,498 tU) is preventing further development of the technology. The global uranium production is expected to decrease between 2035-2040, when 25% of mines will reach lifespan, to as low as 48,100 tU (2040). Eventually, new supply will be required which means the industry needs to at least double projected primary uranium production by 2040 (including current, idled, under development and planned prospective projects).

05
Sep

Switzerland could produce 37.4 TWh of hydropower by 2035

A new study published by the Swiss government considers it is realistic for Switzerland to generate 37,400 GWh from hydro by 2035, up from the theoretical hydropower generation of 35,990 GWh on 1 January 2019. However, to meet the target defined by the Energy Act, an average net development of 85 GWh/year is required in the coming years (it has been 87 GWh/year since 2011).

04
Sep

Energy demand in the Philippines could increase 4-fold by 2040

According to the Socioeconomic Planning Secretary of the Philippines, energy demand in the Philippines could increase by an average 5.7%/year through 2040 under a high economic growth scenario, resulting in a four-fold increase in energy consumption. Indeed, energy consumption in the archipelago has been rising rapidly since 2010 by over 5%/year through 2017.


More news

EnerFuture: Global Energy Forecasts

EnerFuture

EnerFuture provides energy projections up to 2040. Our service offers clear insight into the future of energy demand, prices and GHG emissions.

More information

MACC: Marginal Abatement Cost Curves

EnerFuture MACC

Enerdata's long-term MACC allow you to gain unique insight and comprehensive data from the globally recognised POLES model.

More information