Download the EnerOutlook 2050 presentation to have an overview of the main outcomes of our central scenario EnerBlue in various world regions.
The presentation includes details on the underlying assumptions of this scenario, along with insightful graphs and learnings on the future of energy systems through 2050.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the country will retire 9.1 GW of power generation capacity in 2021, including 5.1 GW of nuclear (56%) and 2.7 GW of coal-fired power plants (30%). More than 800 MW of oil-fired capacity, 253 MW of gas-fired capacity and a 143 MW biomass-fired power plant are also expected to retire in 2021.
According to the National Energy Administration (NEA), China’s crude oil production is expected to increase by 1.6% to over 194 Mt (3.87 mb/d) in 2020, following a jump in output from the onshore Changqing and Tarim oilfields, as well as in Bohai Bay. In addition, the country’s natural gas production should increase by 7% to 186 bcm in 2020. Earlier in December 2020, the State Council Information Office has released a white paper on the country’s energy development and major policies and measures for energy reform, which plans to lift foreign investment restriction on coal, oil, gas, power generation, and new energy businesses during the 14th five-year plan period between 2021-2025.
According to the government, Australia’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are forecast to reach 478 MtCO2eq in 2030, which would be 22% below 2005 levels; under a scenario aligned with the Technology Investment Roadmap, GHG emissions should decrease to 436 Mt CO2-e in 2030, i.e. 29% below 2005 levels. Australia would then meet its target to reduce its GHG emissions by 26% to 28% by 2030 compared to 2005. Australia’s abatement task to meet the 2030 target should range between 56 Mt CO2eq - corresponding to a 26% reduction - and 123 Mt CO2eq, i.e. a 28% reduction over the 2021-2030 period. This should be achieved thanks to new measures aimed at accelerating the development of low emissions technologies included in the 2020-2021 budget, the steady growth in renewable power generation, and temporary effects on the COVID-19 pandemic.
According to US Energy Information Administration, the country’s crude oil production is expected to fall by 910,000 bbl/d in 2020 to 11.3 mb/d (-7.4% compared with the 2019 average). The previous forecast anticipated an 860,000 bbl/d drop. In 2021, US crude oil output is expected to decline further (-1.8%) to reach 11.1 mb/d. US petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption should decline by 2.38 mb/d to 18.16 mb/d in 2020.
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