Introduction

Coal markets are regional with very large, widespread resources and a flat global production cost curve. Prices have experienced a strong spike in the late 2000s, due to a strong demand with the emergence of China as an importer.
In addition to international fossil fuel prices, further energy prices, including end-user prices by energy and by sector, are available in the complete EnerFuture global forecast service based on the POLES model.

Trend over 2000-2040 – EnerBlue scenario

Prices are now falling back to more fundamental values respecting long-term marginal supply costs. China is expected to reduce its call on coal, with other countries possibly increasing their coal demand, however to a limited extent. Based on these fundamentals, coal prices may keep relatively stable in the long run, mostly due to a compensation between lower coal demand in developed and industrialized countries and increasing consumption in emerging economies (in particular South and East Asia). On the supply side, no long term issues are in sight, though on the short term temporary bottlenecks are likely to happen if sudden demand increases occur. Still, due to the preponderant role of China in the global coal market as a major producer and consumer, unexpected changes in regulation or Chinese market intervention could strongly affect coal market prices in the short term.

EnerOutlook Presentation

EnerOutlook

Download the EnerOutlook 2019 presentation to have an overview of the main outcomes of our central scenario EnerBlue in various world regions.
The presentation includes details on the underlying assumptions of this scenario, along with insightful graphs and learnings on the future of energy systems through 2040.

Download the publication

25
Mar

India's Coal Ministry bets on coal bed methane for residential use

The Ministry of Coal of India plans to launch a large scale programme to promote the use Coal Bed Methane (CBM) as an alternative fuel to meet residential energy demand within the next two years.

23
Mar

British Columbia will be the 1st gas producing province in Canada by 2040

According to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), Alberta’s marketable gas production is expected to stagnate over the period 2019-2040. On the contrary, British Columbia’s gas production is projected to keep on increasing, catching up with Alberta’s in 2040 thanks to rising growing tight gas production from the Montney Formation. The two provinces accounted for 94% of Canada’s gas production from 2010 to 2018. LNG exports from Canada’s west coast are expected to start in 2025.

12
Mar

Indonesia aims to double gas production by 2030

The government of Indonesia plans to double gas production in the archipelago over the next decade, in bid to reduce the country’s energy trade deficit. The country intends to produce 127 bcm of natural gas in 2030, against 72 bcm in 2018. The government previously said the country could become self-sufficient in 2025.

10
Mar

Indonesia may face power oversupply as electricity demand slows down

According to the Ministry of Energy of Indonesia, the slowdown in the country's electricity demand (+4.5% in 2019 against a government target of +6.3%, and +3.8% only in January 2020) at a time when new power capacities are being commissioned may result in state-owned power utility PT PLN generating more power than needed. Some islands such as Java and Bali may be over-supplied by up to 41.5% in 2020, while Halmahera may be over-supplied by 202%.


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